TY - JOUR T1 - Detecting Emerging Transmissibility of Avian Influenza Virus in Human Households A1 - van Boven, Michiel A1 - Koopmans, Marion A1 - Du Ry van Beest Holle, Mirna A1 - Meijer, Adam A1 - Klinkenberg, Don A1 - Donnelly, Christl A A1 - Heesterbeek, Hans (J. A. P.) Y1 - 2007/07/27 N2 - Author SummaryRecent outbreaks of emerging diseases such as SARS and H5N1 avian influenza have underlined the fact that animal pathogens may acquire the ability to spread efficiently in humans. Monitoring the transmissibility of pathogens from the animal reservoir in humans is key for early detection of epidemic spread, and for effective control. Here we have used data from a small but well-defined study of H7N7 avian influenza virus transmission in human households to estimate the transmissibility of H7N7 avian influenza in humans living in close contact. The analyses make use of household final size data (i.e., the number of individuals in the household who are ultimately infected), which, for many pathogens, are easily collected. For the H7N7 data, the analyses indicate that the transmission chain in humans may well have extended beyond the first generation of infections in humans, and that less than half of the household infections could have been prevented by antiviral prophylaxis. Our method of analysis provides a rapid and generally applicable tool that can be used to monitor emerging human transmissibility of pathogens from the animal reservoir. JF - PLOS Computational Biology JA - PLOS Computational Biology VL - 3 IS - 7 UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030145 SP - e145 EP - PB - Public Library of Science M3 - doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030145 ER -