TY - JOUR T1 - Insights into the Evolution and Emergence of a Novel Infectious Disease A1 - Kubiak, Ruben J. A1 - Arinaminpathy, Nimalan A1 - McLean, Angela R. Y1 - 2010/09/30 N2 - Author Summary Emerging infections are a continuing global public health issue, the most recent example being last year's ‘Swine flu’ influenza pandemic. However, for many zoonotic pathogens, some adaptation is required to cross the species barrier from an animal reservoir into humans and cause sustained transmission. Previous work has explored the relationship between the evolutionary biology of an adapting pathogen, and the epidemiology of cases that may arise before such a pathogen becomes pandemic-capable. Here, we extend this work to incorporate what is often an important host ecological feature, the spatial distribution of the host population. Many zoonoses occur away from large population centres. For example, HIV is thought to have entered the human population through bushmeat hunters in the sparsely populated jungles of Central Africa. We ask: when a pathogen is evolving to adapt for human transmission, under what circumstances does the spatial structure underlying the human population become important? We approach this question using mathematical models to explore regimes of connectedness between communities. Our results suggest that most communities are sufficiently interconnected to show no effect on the emergence process. We finish by discussing the implications of these findings for public health. JF - PLOS Computational Biology JA - PLOS Computational Biology VL - 6 IS - 9 UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000947 SP - e1000947 EP - PB - Public Library of Science M3 - doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000947 ER -